More than 43% of the world’s oil now comes from countries caught in wars, attacks and export curbs. Countries hit by the disruptions produced about 45 million barrels of oil a day in 2025, according to Reuters calculations based on IEA data.The figure, based on 2025 production, underlines how this year’s disruptions have grown beyond a single flashpoint and eclipsed previous energy crises.Six months after US and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, there is still no clear end in sight. The Russia-Ukraine war has meanwhile disrupted production and refining, with cuts also affecting nearby Kazakhstan this year.Libya’s ongoing conflict and US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added to the pressure on global supplies.
Gulf disruption puts millions of barrels at risk
The disruptions have made the world more dependent on US oil supplies, although severe weather has occasionally hit those supplies as well.The disruptions have not all taken place simultaneously. At present, the Gulf oil disruption is estimated at around 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, according to analysts.Saudi Arabia has been re-routing oil to the Red Sea, while Gulf exporters have been secretly moving oil out through the Strait of Hormuz. But the risk to overall flows remains elevated, with attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt’s Suez Canal in July showing how vulnerable key routes remain.
Wars squeeze refining capacity too
The impact has gone beyond crude oil. Conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have cut global refining capacity by about a tenth.Ukraine has targeted large parts of Russia’s refining network, with attacks reaching plants as far away as Omsk, around 2,700 km (1,680 miles) from Ukrainian-held territory.Russia is now facing fuel shortages and has banned gasoline and diesel exports, putting further pressure on global fuel markets.Higher fuel prices have emerged as a key driver of inflation, contributing to higher borrowing costs and helping push US debt to a record $40 trillion. US diesel prices have also climbed to record levels even as refiners operate at peak capacity.The IEA has responded by releasing record volumes from emergency stockpiles to cushion the supply shock. Those releases are now largely complete, while global inventories continue to decline.
